The capabilities of Japan's rocket technology hadn't allowed us to look at the possibility of sending humans into space. As the country rarely even launched a rocket, many believed that Japan was too small a nation to try such an ambitious project. That's why the government had decided not to look into the field for the time being.
However, things have changed. Japan's launch vehicle technology has rapidly advanced, and its reliability has risen up to 95%, as high as that of the United States and Russia. Japan was also inspired by China's successful manned space flight in 2003. Having said that, there is no shortcut to human space activity. To make preparations for the future, CSTP revised the nation's policy to initiate research.
This is a big step. The next question is, when can we see our own human space activity? I think we'll be able to make a decision as launch vehicle technology steadily increases in reliability. Within the next 20 years, human space activity will be necessary, as there are obviously limits to the use of robots, and human cooperation will be necessary for lunar exploration. We'll definitely need to have the capabilities by then.
 |
 |
|
Future human space activities
|
As long as the reliability of launch vehicles improves within the next 10 years, we see the possibility of developing our own human space activity, so we'll start research during this period. The decision to launch or not will be made on a national level, so for now we've given ourselves a specific deadline of 10 years.
In the subsequent 10 years, if we still see the potential -- taking into account Japan's technological strength, the state of its economy, and human resources -- we'll move forward toward 2025. The project will be quite practical and substantial. If human space activity technology is established, it will eventually enable space travel. But this should follow from the success of human space activity, rather than being a project initiated by the government. Instead, the government should focus on demonstrating improvements in the reliability of launch vehicles, since this is a fundamental requirement for human space activity.
Japan has made efforts to catch up with world-standard technologies. To do so, it has developed new launch vehicle after new launch vehicle in a very short timeframe. And we're finally in a position to surpass world standards. Instead of working on the development of new rockets, it's now time to think of how to mature our launch-vehicle technology.
|
